• dylanmorgan@slrpnk.net
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    2 days ago

    So, there is a lot of circumstantial evidence that part of US support for Israel is to have a destabilizing force in the Middle East. Israel and the US both backed various forces in Syria and Lebanon, because it serves the purpose of destabilization to have basket case pseudo states that are crippled by internal conflict. It would not be a stretch to argue that Mossad has sponsored at least some of the groups involved in the current uprising in Iran.

    However, if there was not a popular movement against the current theocratic regime, mossad would have nothing to sponsor. Cuba didn’t rise up in revolt against Castro despite tons of CIA funding because the majority of Cubans (the ones who stayed in Cuba at least) felt that whatever Castro’s faults, his government was better than whatever the US would put in place.

    The issue in Iran is that (like in Syria a few years ago, or in…Iran in 1978) you could have a situation where multiple groups want the current regime gone but don’t agree on what comes next. That’s what happened in Syria which led to a dozen or more factions fighting for control, and it’s what happened when the Shah was overthrown in Iran, leading to the current theocracy.

    • TanteRegenbogen@feddit.orgOP
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      2 days ago

      I don’t doubt that Mossad is fanning the flames, but I think it is ridiculous to claim that millions of protestors are Mossad sponsored.

    • SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca
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      2 days ago

      Instead of looking at “circumstantial evidence”, maybe just crack open a history book?

      The US was trying to get Egypt to align with it for decades. Egypt being the most populous country was influential and had a larger military than other countries in the region. After the Suez Crisis, the US demanded Israel return the Sinai back to Egypt in their efforts to get Egypt on their side.

      Of course these efforts bore not fruit, Egypt was playing both sides (US and USSR). So by the time of the Six Day war when Israel took the Sinai again, The US did nothing about it.

      The Yom Kippur war was where things changed. Israel had the Egyptian army encircled and the Egyptian regime couldn’t stay in power without a military. Israel had Egypt by the balls. With the Camp David Accords, Egypt got the Sinai back, and agreed to align with the US, and agreed to make peace with Israel. US agreed to provide foreign aid (ie. weapons) to both Egypt and Israel. With more going to Israel to keep Egypt honest.

      So no need for circumstantial evidence… the US backs countries with strong militaries that agree to be aligned with the US.

      In 2010 a bunch of diplomatic cables leaked. You can read what governments in the Middle East actually think about Israel. TL;DR They don’t care. Iran is a bigger threat to them, and that’s what they really worry about most. And Iran is a country that chants “death to America” regularly, so not exactly friendly to the US.

      It’s in the US interests to have countries that have capable militaries that are aligned with US interests (ie. adversaries of Iran) in the region. That means fewer US military assets are needed in the region to counter Iran.

      In the summer of 2023 Saudi Arabia was very close to establishing formal relations with Israel. While not exactly a formal alliance, but there would be an understanding that they would work together to counter Iran. This was something the Biden administration was pushing for so there would be relative stability in the Middle East and the US would not be as directly involved in there going forward. Something that would be best for everyone.

      Then October 7 happened.

      Israel is not the destabilizing force you’re basing your circumstantial evidence on. Iran is the destabilizing force of the Middle East. The Ayatollah regime provides material support for Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Peace in the region is not in their interests, because it’s not Israel that’s the one other countries in the region worry about. If it weren’t for the actions of Hamas (an Iranian proxy) there would be peace between Israel and many more of the countries in the region.

      The Ayatollah’s regime has massacred over 12,000 Iranian people in the last week. They’re the real monsters in the region. If you want peace in the Middle East you’ll be hoping they’ll be overthrown.