Russia had some reputation of being a large and powerful army, but as soon as they attacked Ukraine it showed the world it actually had shit. It basically lost its credibility of being a world power because their arsenal is old fashioned and they were just throwing in bodies.
I feel the US is going through the same. Everyone saw them as an undefeatable nation, but this little stint in Iran had their stockpiles dropping faster than expected and it’s not going as they expected. Hegseth and Trump contradict each other and besides squandering their soft power over the past years, they are also showing that their military might has limits.
They are both still to be reckoned with and they are capable of doing great harm to innocent bystanders, but my view has changed a bit.
But US vs. Iran war isn’t total war for the US, like Ukraine vs. Russia is for Russia.
Only 8 US soldiers died, compared to likely hundreds of Iranians and most of exposed Iranian infrastructure. US didn’t even deploy a single aircraft carrier.
Poorly executed military action is 100% an American institution. We expect it - from the Bay of Pigs to “Mission Accomplished” in Iraq to the twenty year campaign in Afghanistan, our executive branch has a habit of making itself look incompetent.
But guess what? Nobody’s asking about Epstein, so VICTORY!
A full on invasion will be much more difficult than Irak. The US probably could do this but it’s going to be costly, forever and very unpopular.
US military would be bound up for a long time.
Good question what the goal is supposed to be now. Trump may just declare it over somehow.
I think the issue is that offense is harder than defense. A defender generally has the home advantage in terms of logistics, familiarity with the area and political will. The difference this makes is hard to estimate, and even harder so if you’re not even aware of it. Combined with delusions of grandeur, this is a recipe for underestimating the enemy.
And call me a cynic, but I suspect neither Cadet Bone Spurs nor Major “Warrior Ethos” “Signal Chat” “American Crusade” Boozeth are entirely qualified to make high-level military judgements.
(Neither is my armchair general ass whose only education in the matter is some MilHist blogs and articles, but at least I’m not an actual general charged to actually make them.)
For Putin, I’m not sure. I’m disinclined to believe he’s just ignorant about the tenacity a people under attack can develop, given Russian history, but I can only make unqualified guesses.
Either way, as you say, I wouldn’t want to be on the receiving end, because a blunt and rusty axe still hurts, and they don’t seem concerned about where they swing it and who’s in the way.
I suspect an offense against the USA would be easy to pull off. The low standards of ICE and the nature of their operation would allow just about any organized actor to have a free hand in the US, if they chose to do so.
Doesn’t matter how advanced your weapons are if you have not enough money to use enough of them and not enough soldiers that would like to come and kill other people that can also fight them back. So, while the USA has high defending potential, it has not enough politically approved resources for a long occupational war. Only short quick operations are now possible, since the USA citizens are against the war and greatly affect the leadership authority of current government, so that it cannot waste money to launch a full scale war as it was before. Especially, because of this doesn’t pleases oligarchs which have great leverage in this situation.
Russia had some reputation of being a large and powerful army, but as soon as they attacked Ukraine it showed the world it actually had shit. It basically lost its credibility of being a world power because their arsenal is old fashioned and they were just throwing in bodies.
I feel the US is going through the same. Everyone saw them as an undefeatable nation, but this little stint in Iran had their stockpiles dropping faster than expected and it’s not going as they expected. Hegseth and Trump contradict each other and besides squandering their soft power over the past years, they are also showing that their military might has limits.
They are both still to be reckoned with and they are capable of doing great harm to innocent bystanders, but my view has changed a bit.
The drop in stockpiles was the point.
You say oops, then spend a fuck ton of defense budget and order a fuck ton of munitions from your war-machine buddies.
But US vs. Iran war isn’t total war for the US, like Ukraine vs. Russia is for Russia.
Only 8 US soldiers died, compared to likely hundreds of Iranians and most of exposed Iranian infrastructure. US didn’t even deploy a single aircraft carrier.
Poorly executed military action is 100% an American institution. We expect it - from the Bay of Pigs to “Mission Accomplished” in Iraq to the twenty year campaign in Afghanistan, our executive branch has a habit of making itself look incompetent.
But guess what? Nobody’s asking about Epstein, so VICTORY!
A full on invasion will be much more difficult than Irak. The US probably could do this but it’s going to be costly, forever and very unpopular. US military would be bound up for a long time.
Good question what the goal is supposed to be now. Trump may just declare it over somehow.
I think the issue is that offense is harder than defense. A defender generally has the home advantage in terms of logistics, familiarity with the area and political will. The difference this makes is hard to estimate, and even harder so if you’re not even aware of it. Combined with delusions of grandeur, this is a recipe for underestimating the enemy.
And call me a cynic, but I suspect neither Cadet Bone Spurs nor Major “Warrior Ethos” “Signal Chat” “American Crusade” Boozeth are entirely qualified to make high-level military judgements.
(Neither is my armchair general ass whose only education in the matter is some MilHist blogs and articles, but at least I’m not an actual general charged to actually make them.)
For Putin, I’m not sure. I’m disinclined to believe he’s just ignorant about the tenacity a people under attack can develop, given Russian history, but I can only make unqualified guesses.
Either way, as you say, I wouldn’t want to be on the receiving end, because a blunt and rusty axe still hurts, and they don’t seem concerned about where they swing it and who’s in the way.
I suspect an offense against the USA would be easy to pull off. The low standards of ICE and the nature of their operation would allow just about any organized actor to have a free hand in the US, if they chose to do so.
You have no idea about the NATO-Russia war nor how modern attrition wars work. Can’t blame you, MSM are a hall of distorted mirrors.
Doesn’t matter how advanced your weapons are if you have not enough money to use enough of them and not enough soldiers that would like to come and kill other people that can also fight them back. So, while the USA has high defending potential, it has not enough politically approved resources for a long occupational war. Only short quick operations are now possible, since the USA citizens are against the war and greatly affect the leadership authority of current government, so that it cannot waste money to launch a full scale war as it was before. Especially, because of this doesn’t pleases oligarchs which have great leverage in this situation.