Memory manufacturers are forecasting that memory shortages will persist until the end of 2028, when the supply chain balance is expected to be restored and memory will once again reach its commodity status. However, according to the South Korean Chosun Biz newspaper, memory manufacturers are reconsi...
Either that or, optimistically, memory manufacturers see a bubble about to burst, and they don’t want to be stuck holding excessive manufacturing equipment.
Frequently the attitude towards equipment is that it can be sold once they’re done with it. Particularly specialized equipment might sit a little longer but that’s built in to the calculation.
There’s a bottleneck in hiring skilled workers to run that equipment, and time to get that equipment up and running. It can take months from when the equipment is in the building before it’s making parts, up to a year for very sensitive equipment. And troubleshooting it to get it working at capacity takes even longer.
Which is great, if you need time to find people to run it, but usually those skilled workers already have jobs, and there are only so many available in any given area. Even if you have them available you’re stuck paying them for months before you’re ready to put them to work.
It’s high risk and it takes a long time to pay off. A miscalculation is the end of the CEOs career and may bankrupt the company. The first to pull it off though will be in a great spot, assuming it’s not a bubble and it doesn’t burst. Manufacturers are going to want some solid guarantees before taking the plunge. Optimally they want someone else to pay for it. They may actually be negotiating with these companies now about funding their expansion.