I appreciate the sourcing, but meaning no offense, you are not using industry sources, and this is very much “inside baseball” unless you are in the industry and read the industry sources (or encounter it yourself). To a lesser extent you can trawl OFAC for some public numbers.
It’s true that Iran has refined products shortages all the time due to both their limited refining capability and the higher value cargoes (such as gasoil) being sold via the dark fleet.
The dark fleet itself is a massive source of storage for crude, and to a lesser extent, various products. These ships are mostly anchored East of Johor and are Suexmazes or VLCCs, ships like a small mountain.
Iran does re-import some refined products from India and the so-called “teapot refiners” along the Chinese coast, but this is not always enough to meet domestic need. The Iranian government does not give two shits about this due to the fuck ton of money they make off the dark fleet (which then goes to Quds, etc.)
I appreciate the sourcing, but meaning no offense, you are not using industry sources, and this is very much “inside baseball” unless you are in the industry and read the industry sources (or encounter it yourself). To a lesser extent you can trawl OFAC for some public numbers.
if you have better sources of information, share the sources instead of pontificating to us about your interpretation of them.
This is soooo one of those time I wish I could pull the whole “do you have any idea who I am?” bullshit. Below find some good public sources; I don’t have time to get Archive versions of the paywalled stuff at Lloyd’s List, Tradewinds, or Shippingwatch, but if the below official sources are not sufficient, let me know and I will.
You could consult another official horse: https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/933506/download?inline (PDF warning). This one isn’t exactly about production like the EIA stuff is, but it will show you the extent to which the Americans have been forced to take extreme measures to try, mostly unsuccessful, to curtail Russian exports. Wikipedia will give you something similar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadow_fleet It’s a long read; scroll down to the section on Russia.
think, for a moment: if they had the ability, wouldn’t they still be exporting?
“Russia imposed a gasoline exports ban for oil producers on July 28 in a bid to prevent shortages at a time of peak demand because of summer travel and grain harvesting. But some market participants said this will not be enough to avert a fuel crunch.”
I make no assumptions on who you are, I only judge based on the reality we’re seeing on the ground and the halting of exports when they desperately need the funds. I know this does not necessarily discount shadow fleet economics but it cannot be helping the situation either. I think, in this case, it’s more important to judge the reality on the ground than the reality 10 months ago.
I appreciate the sourcing, but meaning no offense, you are not using industry sources, and this is very much “inside baseball” unless you are in the industry and read the industry sources (or encounter it yourself). To a lesser extent you can trawl OFAC for some public numbers.
It’s true that Iran has refined products shortages all the time due to both their limited refining capability and the higher value cargoes (such as gasoil) being sold via the dark fleet.
The dark fleet itself is a massive source of storage for crude, and to a lesser extent, various products. These ships are mostly anchored East of Johor and are Suexmazes or VLCCs, ships like a small mountain.
Iran does re-import some refined products from India and the so-called “teapot refiners” along the Chinese coast, but this is not always enough to meet domestic need. The Iranian government does not give two shits about this due to the fuck ton of money they make off the dark fleet (which then goes to Quds, etc.)
if you have better sources of information, share the sources instead of pontificating to us about your interpretation of them.
This is soooo one of those time I wish I could pull the whole “do you have any idea who I am?” bullshit. Below find some good public sources; I don’t have time to get Archive versions of the paywalled stuff at Lloyd’s List, Tradewinds, or Shippingwatch, but if the below official sources are not sufficient, let me know and I will.
You could also go straight to the horse’s mouth: https://www.eia.gov/international/overview/country/rus If you click through on the full analysis section you’ll find a more detailed picture: https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/RUS
You could consult another official horse: https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/933506/download?inline (PDF warning). This one isn’t exactly about production like the EIA stuff is, but it will show you the extent to which the Americans have been forced to take extreme measures to try, mostly unsuccessful, to curtail Russian exports. Wikipedia will give you something similar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadow_fleet It’s a long read; scroll down to the section on Russia.
don’t worry, I don’t care.
cool chart. how’s that jive with the miles-long lines for gas?
Best Practices in Response to Recent Developments in the Maritime Oil Trade October 21, 2024
10 months later, I still posit: they’ve drained the reserves they used to keep civilian petrol flowing.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/parts-russia-face-gasoline-shortages-after-ukraine-struck-refineries-2025-08-21/
think, for a moment: if they had the ability, wouldn’t they still be exporting?
“Russia imposed a gasoline exports ban for oil producers on July 28 in a bid to prevent shortages at a time of peak demand because of summer travel and grain harvesting. But some market participants said this will not be enough to avert a fuel crunch.”
I make no assumptions on who you are, I only judge based on the reality we’re seeing on the ground and the halting of exports when they desperately need the funds. I know this does not necessarily discount shadow fleet economics but it cannot be helping the situation either. I think, in this case, it’s more important to judge the reality on the ground than the reality 10 months ago.