• Don Piano@feddit.org
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    12
    arrow-down
    1
    ·
    16 hours ago

    That’s how a standard error with normal-ish data works. The more data points for the estimation of a conditional mean you have, the fewer of the data point will be within it. For a normal distribution, the SE=SD/√N . Heck, you can even just calculate which proportion of the distribution you can expect to be within the 95% CI as a function of sample size. (Its a bit more complicated because of how probabilities factor into this, but for a large enough N it’s fine)

    For N=9, you’d expect 26% of data points within the 95% CI of the mean For N=16, 19% For 25, 16% For 100, 8% For 400, 4% Etc

    Out of curiosity: What issue did you take with the error margin not including most data points?

    • Don Piano@feddit.org
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      7
      ·
      16 hours ago

      Oops, should have multiplied those intervals with 1.96, ao here again:

      9 - 49%

      16 - 38%

      25 - 30%

      100 -16%

      400 - 8%