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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • It is not “normal” to run a 4 year money loser and claiming to be worth billions.

    Maybe not, but it is absolutely normal to lose money for years to make a profit later.
    Microsoft was ready to lose money on Xbox for 10 years to take a place in the console market. And it’s a very profitable market for them now.
    Microsoft tried some of the same with Windows Phone, where they invested billions for years before they gave up.

    One of the most hyped AI companies is probably OpenAI, and they absolutely have products that makes them money. They are not profitable yet.
    But among the bigger stock holders are Nvidia and Microsoft, and if OpenAI goes under, they will absolutely survive just fine. But I don’t think they will.
    OpenAI is owned by companies that know how to make money, and apparently OpenAI knows how to do it too, and has been quicker to make money on for instance ChatGPT than Google was on making money on YouTube.

    Some AI companies will go down, that’s the nature of being in a cutting edge business, and it’s the nature of competition. But I think the AI business will mature and stabilize like most businesses have, not burst like a bubble.

    Nobody called it a bubble when the smartphone market exploded. Because everybody could see the value of the product, although it’s not quite the same, many companies have been forced out of the smartphone market due to competition. I think the AI market will be mostly similar.








  • I don’t think it’s a bubble, first there is absolutely zero comparison to the housing bubble, which was a financial problem that caused housing prices to inflate, while the inherent value of housing stayed the same. This alleged AI bubble is mostly driven by companies that have lots of money, so it is not credit based, and there are underlying products that actually have increasing value.

    The better comparison would be the dot com bubble, which was dominated by companies that didn’t even have a product and didn’t make any money. The frenzy is similar, but the fundamentals are different.

    AI investments may cool down because obviously there is a frantic race in an attempt to get ahead.
    But the reason I don’t think the AI bubble will burst is because it is driven by companies that actually make money.
    They may lose money investing too heavily in this, but the most companies investing in this can afford it.

    I think the most AI bubbly company isn’t even in the diagram, because that is Tesla. Tesla might actually go down, because Musk is insane.

    But in general if it is a bubble, it is a very very long one, Nvidia value has been exploding since 2016 based on their AI product dominance. If this is a bubble, I think it will go down in history as the longest living bubble ever.

    Is the market frantic? Yes absolutely.
    Is the value of some AI companies extremely high? Yes absolutely.
    Is it a bubble that will burst? No if it’s a bubble, this one will be more like deflating to a less frantic level, because ALL the main players have the money to weather losses.
    And the main AI companies have actual products that make money for them rolled out already. So it is not like the dot com bubble.






  • but the reality was when you wanted to get the low level hardware, there was very little documentation.

    The low level of what? Graphics sprites sound and IO were ALL documented!
    Maybe horizontal and vertical smooth scrolling wasn’t in the included book, which is essentially just an introduction for beginners, but such things were absolutely released info by Commodore, and it was dead easy to do for that reason, such info was everywhere!

    I don’t sense that you have any actual experience programming on that platform,

    I absolutely did, and I programmed sprites in assembly, and made a program we called sprite design, where you could design and animate sprites, which we never released, because we were under the false assumption that you didn’t release software until it was perfect.
    Later when i didn’t use the C64 anymore, a friend of mine borrowed all my software, and came back absolutely ecstatic about how professional Sprite Design was, and was very puzzled he had never heard about it.
    We made a build in help function using our own 90% efficient compression, we used self modifying code, and utilized the 6510 ability to switch off the ROM to have access to the RAM at that address space, and swapped where the character set was located and used our own 6 pixel wide character set, with an interrupt to give a tiny beep sound with key presses. The main structure was made with the Petspeed compiler, but everything surrounding the sprite animations was assembly. ( fuck 8 bit programming 😜 ) I made pretty sophisticated algorithms to make the weird 8x8 or 4x8 graphics format in color easier and faster to work with.
    The C64 was amazing for its time for its speed and hardware capabilities. Despite being a machine that ran slightly below 1 MHz it was quite fast for its time.

    You just probably isn’t aware that all that was openly available on the C64 wasn’t on most other computers of the time.

    A collection on C64 books: https://archive.org/details/commodore_c64_books

    An example of a book describing assembly and hardware registers:
    https://archive.org/details/Assembly_Language_Programming_With_the_Commodore_64_1984_Brady_Communications_Company/mode/2up

    But also there was a ton of info released in magazines like RUN etc.

    I’m not sure what info exactly you think was lacking? Except of course there were a few things that were possible that even the creators of the chips were unaware of, But was figured out by hackers. Such things can obviously not be part of the official documentation.




  • The worst aspect of the C64 was that the hardware was a mostly undocumented mystery zone.

    This is simply false. The C64 was a completely open platform, everything was open, including how you programmed the special hardware directly. Even the included documentation was pretty good to get started, and included examples on how to program audio, graphics and sprites directly to the hardware.

    For more advanced programming (assembly) you obviously needed to purchase the tools and documentation. The included book was only meant to get you started with the included BASIC. But the tools were cheap and documentation were extremely cheap compared to other computers, because it was a completely open platform.
    The ability to have an assembler on a capsule in shadow ROM was extremely powerful.

    The philosophy of Jack Tramiel was to put the hardware in the hands of users, and let them do whatever they wished without limitations. No closed garden at all.
    Exactly because of that Jack Tramiel was a fucking hero IMO. And no other computer had more hacks and programming examples available at the time. And I bet it was a huge reason for why C64 was by far the best selling home computer for years.

    Atari and Texas Instruments however at the time were closed, and therefore IMO useless.

    Included book for C64:
    https://www.commodore.ca/commodore-manuals/commodore-64-users-guide/