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Cake day: June 8th, 2023

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  • Except those fundamental limits are far higher. The fact is that hydrogen stores energy at 120 MJ/kg. Even at 5% weight efficiency, that’s 6 MJ/kg. Or 1,666 Wh/kg. At 10%, it is 3,333 Wh/kg. Far beyond any battery.

    Your link is seriously lying. 8x is the gap between lead-acid and li-ion batteries. The claims are simply impossible. The author must be unknowingly comparing lead-acid battery powered cars to li-ion battery powered cars. I cannot see any other way his claim is true.

    A lithium-air battery is literally a fuel cell. In fact, what did you think hydrogen fuel cells were this entire time?


  • I would say that’s pretty unlikely there will be a 10x improvement in battery chemistry. At some point, we will have to deal with the fundamental limitations of the technology. That will likely imply a different kind of EV. Other conversations in this thread have brought up the FCEV, which is honestly the mostly likely guess for what comes after the BEV. In other words, the solution is to move beyond batteries, not pretend we can just improve batteries ad absurdum.

    Also, this is basically the point of the book The Innovator’s Dilemma. Technology does not improve linearly exclusively. At some point, major shifts in the market will have to happen. If you think about this problem honestly, you probably have to conclude that the limitations of the BEV must be solved by a big leap forward, not incremental improvements in batteries. And if you can reach that conclusion, then you must realize that the BEV has to be a transitional technology. Perhaps, even a fad.







  • Of course, many of his acolytes—especially those in Silicon Valley—have tended to believe that he has everything in hand.

    One thing I’ve learned recently is how braindead much of the Silicon Valley venture capital community actually is. It wasn’t just that they all put their money in one bank that collapsed when they all pulled out. A major act of stupidity in itself. It is that they consistently have very little idea how business works in general. They seem to be living in an insulated bubble, and only survive because other people dump billions of dollars into their laps. No one checks up on them nor verify whether any of their startups are actually viable. It’s just more and more money dumped into their laps with most of it wasted.

    Eventually, the cash spigot will end, and my bet is nearly all of them will forced out of the industry. Collectively, they have done nothing but waste hundreds of billions of other people’s money. Even their few “success” stories are examples like companies that got bought out with few of them ever making money, or companies that could only survive if the venture capital market was crazy strong. So even those are flops if we’re honest. So the whole thing seems destined to fail in a spectacular way.