All that shows is who the business partners are. Nvidia sells GPUs, AI companies buy GPUs, and companies buy products from AI companies. For example, Microsoft’s Copilot is based on OpenAI’s models. End customers buy products from companies that either do AI themselves or buy products from AI companies.

All you’re seeing here is how markets work. If it’s a bubble, it’ll likely impact those in the picture, but it’s not a bubble because of the picture.

I’m pretty sure he is the anti-christ…

So, short the financial sector. Got it.

Yeah, a “safe” PE ratio is around 20. The PE of the entire market is about 28, so investors are basically saying Nvidia is going to grow at double the rate vs the rest of the economy.

I think that’s bonkers, but what’s even more bonkers is Palantir with a ~1700 PE ratio. That’s ludicrous.

If Nvidia crashes, I expect it fall to about half it’s current valuation, maybe a bit higher, and that’s assuming their sales aren’t impacted. If the floor falls out from GPUs, then drop that to 1/3 or so.

The best case, I think, is for Nvidia and Tesla to do well in the short term (next 6 months or so) and then crash. That way Thiel and most people following his investment advice get to eat it, but the bubble doesn’t stay propped up for too long.

Yup, I have ~15 options. Basically:

• low cost S&P 500, US mid-cap fund, US small-cap fund, and total international funds (all under 0.10% ER)
• 1-2 actively managed options for each of the first bullet point with much higher fees
• 3 bond funds
• a cash fund
• a retirement fund (tons of bonds and cash)

I’m in a mix of the first bullet point.

401ks won’t let you pick specific stocks, generally speaking, but they should have more options than just target date funds. Most will at least have an S&P 500 fund and usually an international fund.

I like their first party games, not so much their published games. They should stick to what they do best.

money… is made from merely money being passed around whilst no actual value is created

Crypto is a zero-sum game, so money is never “made,” it’s exchanged. So if one person does well, another person must do poorly. That’s the same for stocks, though stocks are a bit different in that the stock price includes the actual, physical assets a company owns.

Real estate isn’t. When real estate increases in value, that doesn’t mean another property decreased in value, it just means people value that property more today than in the past. This could be due to limited supply (there are only so many plots a geographic area) or renovations, meaning its intrinsic value changes (higher expected rents), therefore it’s not a zero sum game.

So you really need to define what “wealth” is if you’re going to lump real estate in with stocks and crypto currency.

Stocks were a share of ownership in a structure

They still are. The stock price includes the intrinsic value of the company, as well as expected future growth in its intrinsic value. It’s that expected future growth that is doing a lot of work here, and it’s why companies like Palantir can trade at ~1700 times earnings when a “normal” company would be around 10-20x (for reference, Nvidia trades around 50 times earnings, Johnson and Johnson is around 20), people expect Palantir to grow way faster than “normal” companies.

Expected future growth has always been a part of that equation, that’s not new. What is new is the amount of hype around certain stocks, and that probably has more to do with the news cycle (people have access to information way quicker than 50 years ago or even 20 years ago).

each token can claim less and less quyantities of the traditional underlying value things - just notice food inflation.

Inflation has also been a thing as long as fiat currencies have been a thing. The target has been 2%, and the average between 1913 and 2020 was about 3.6% (source; I took the total 2555% and divided it by the 87 years of that period).

Whilst official Inflation numbers don’t tell us this story

Do you have evidence of that? The CPI the US uses has been criticized for various reasons, but it’s still the official measure used, and there’s a good reason for that: it’s pretty good.

Things like housing are very location-dependent, so changes in one region won’t really reflect on overall inflation figures if other areas aren’t experiencing that as well. But if you look at expenditure figures using percentages of peoples’ incomes, housing stays relatively constant in overall percent, which is around 30%. Again, these are national numbers, things may certainly vary by region, since areas like LA will be quite a bit different than rural Texas.

The societal consequences of the value-representation structures we have (literally, of thing like money, stocks and even certificates of ownership) unwinding would be huge.

Sure, if what you say is actually true. But I don’t think that’s the case. I think instead, salaries increases tend to trail inflation, and some people still haven’t yet caught up from the high inflation just after COVID. The averages look good, but that breaks down in individual cases.

Rents, for example, are starting to come down in my area (about 6.5% from last year), which was one of the hardest hit. A lot of the problem was due to new construction projects getting delayed due to COVID supply-chain disruption, and we’re finally catching up to where we should’ve been.

Whether you have the rights is kind of irrelevant to this discussion. Let’s say it’s GOG games that are all DRM-free, my point is digital consumption has nearly infinite upper limits for consumption.

It seems the nature of things are changing from physical things to digital things, and that has infinite potential. I expect at some point we’ll start mining the landfills because it’s easier than extracting stuff from the rock. Once that happens, there’s no physical limit on the greed.

Which economy was that? We’ve had greed for hundreds of years, if not many thousands.

Yup, I might try the Jellyfin thing as well. I currently use an app on the TV, but it’s flaky and the TV keeps losing network randomly. Newer TVs at adding ads, so I’ll need an alternative.

High end would be the high end of the market components, right? So RTX 5090 ($2k+) or RX 9070 ($700+). High end CPU would be Ryzen 7 9800X3D for $400. Add a motherboard and copious RAM and you’re looking at $2k+ for all AMD, $3-5k for Nvidia.

Mid tier would be somewhere in the middle, so cut those numbers in half ($1-1.5k). Low end is what you can get away with, so cut the mod tier in half again, though going below $700 would be hard for anything but the most casual of games.

Console manufacturers haven’t sold at a loss in a long time.

They tend to at first launch. This article says it took 6 months for the PS4 and a bit longer for the PS5 to stop selling at a loss. It’s no longer the whole product lifecycle, but they are still sold at a loss at least at the start. I think that implies that hardware sales aren’t a major profit center, so even if they are profitable, there’s probably not a ton of margin.

Worked for Goose Goose Duck!

Sure, if you eat it.

Nah, it’ll probably be $800-1k. It’s basically a 7600 CPU + RX7600 GPU or whatever, and it’s not really upgradeable. So somewhere between the Series S and X in performance, and not subsidized by game sales.

Oh man, that 50 mortgage proposal is so awful.

Yeah, they’re only dangerous IMO because their owners want them to be dangerous.

Both are great. Here are some great indies:

• Factorio
• Hollow Knight
• Subnautica
• Celeste
• Hades
• Tunic

That covers a wide range of genres, none are particularly derivative, and those are just off the top of my head.

I play great classics all the time, but I also play great new indies.