I’d argue it’s inevitable for the simple reason that the whole AI as a service business model is a catch 22. Current frontier models aren’t profitable, and all the current service providers live off VC funding. And if models become cheap enough to be profitable, then they’re cheap enough to run locally too. And there’s little reason to expect that models aren’t going to continue being optimized going forward, so we are going to hit an inflection point where local becomes the dominant paradigm.
We’ve seen the pendulum swing between mainframe and personal computer many times before. I expect this will be no different.





















Completely agree, and now it’s just hip to say how much you hate AI. This kind of performative action doesn’t really accomplish anything, but it lets people feel good about themselves and gain social acceptance. Actually building an alternative takes work. The whole Linux analogy is very apt here because we’ve always had alternatives to corporate offerings, but most people don’t want to invest the time into learning how to use them.