It will last well into the 24th century
I doubt it will over take Microslop offerings anytime soon, but I also think the rise of the Linux desktop has only just started. I think it will come from non-US countries where government departments make the switch. People start getting comfortable using it at work, which helps build confidence in the alternatives to Microslop shit. Also Valve still pushing hard in the gaming space. I think 10% to 15% market share in 5 years is possible. I doubt it’ll go beyond 20% without some fundamental changes, like laws forcing hardware OEMs to support Linux equally as windows and Mac, and better DRM support.
Linux runs the entire internet, a good part of corporate-level servers and it dominates the supercomputing space, you can’t get more mainstream than that.
As for desktop use, most people around the world don’t know what an operating system is, some even believe the browser IS the internet.
With such tech-illiteracy there’s no way Linux can be widely adopted, because no opensource project can beat Microsoft commercial power in “convincing” PC vendors to offer it preinstalled, yes a few do, but they’re very scarce compared to those offering Windows, some even claim you will break the warranty if you install something different than what comes preinstalled (Windows), such a claim is illegal in many countries but some people don’t know any better.
If you don’t know what an OS is, you have no reason to change, unless you’re lucky and have a friend or family member doing the work for you, but you can’t rely on that for the entire world.
i don’t know, i just noticed my volume control applet pavucontrol switched to GTK 4 when i updated to debian 13 recently and now it uses more resources than your typical shitty electron app (a volume slider!) and won’t respect my system theme.
this has been the trend for a lot of software on linux, both GTK and to an extent Qt with stuff like kirigami and i’m liking my overall experience with desktop linux a lot less than i used to because of it.
Unfortunately, I don’t see Linux ever gaining widespread adoption. Not for general desktop use.
In order for that to happen, Linux would have to gain enough market share to actually be a threat to Microsoft’s business, and when that happens, Microsoft is going to respond one of two ways: actually making their products more appealing, and regain their lost share, or (far more likely) REALLY ramp up their efforts to suppress Linux’s growth. And I don’t think Linux has the strength to withstand the full weight of Microsoft’s legal and financial power.
With Windows 10 EOL we already saw a surge of new users me included and with the decline of Agentic OS 11 I can see Linux hitting 10% in 2029 maybe even 2028.
Asshole authoritarians spread their disease throughout the world. First they pass laws requiring age verification options and successfully pull off the non-optional bait and switch. Then they require more and more mandatory shit until open source becomes impossible. Only paid distros like Red Hat survive and we’ve all got cameras in bedrooms and slave gays, lesbians, blacks, and non Christian people in concentration camps that operate on the latest Microslop Winblows data-miner OS.
So a couple of weeks ago I finally had enough of windows and put linux mint on my laptop instead. I haven’t used linux since the early 90s and couldn’t remember much at all, was concerned I’d have trouble with drivers etc.
In fact the whole experience was a piece of piss. So easy. There were no urgent-seeming pop ups with arcane terms, no crashes or problems, I didn’t need to use the command prompt.
Then I was able to find and install the programmes I use easily too. Slack, steam, etc. Within maybe an hour I was able to do my work on the computer again. I kinda feel like I got my laptop back - windows was getting so buggy and aggravating that I had been avoiding using the machine.
If Linux wants a future in which it continues to grow, it needs to do more of this, appealing to the casual, non-technical user. Because we probably represent most of the market.
windows was getting so buggy and aggravating
Also Microsoft convinced the people that system updates are a bad thing.
Mint, Manjaro, Fedora, Bazzite… there are plenty of beginner friendly distros these days!
That’s easy, I just take a gander into my Linux Orb, and it reveals itself to me
Brighter than ever, thanks to Steam Deck and Microsoft’s general idiocy.
Linux would look great even if Microsoft didn’t help, but oh my god, does Microsoft help.
Just `man future` .
Seriously, RTFM.
/s jk, this comment brought to you by parody.
I see Linux being more and more widely adopted in Europe, for one. I imagine there will be an ‘EU standardized’ distro forked to prevent any issues of interoperability between government systems. Hopefully, such a widespread adoption for PCs encourages more development for Linux from software devs.
Bright. As it continues to grow, and MS gets more terrible I think desktop share will always increase.
I seriously worry about what happens when Linus decides to end his involvement though. I don’t keep up with the happens of the kernel devs but the thought of a split, takeover or power vacuum is a concern for me. Hopefully someone can assure me.
My exact concern too. Don’t see it as an imminent problem, but would like some sort of succession plan or even to develop some sort of framework to ensure the kernel endures after Linus stops being involved.
There is a continuity process at least https://github.com/torvalds/linux/commit/102606402f4f5943266160e263c450fdfe4dd981 Although it is mainly, here is the process to figure out the plan.
What amazes me is, that a formal official plan (this) is just done recently a few months ago. How was there no official plan before? I don’t understand…
Have you got a will?
Estimated 50% of adults don’t. There’s always a more pleasant task on the to-do list to be getting on with.WTF we are talking about Linux, the biggest and most important piece of software. What are you even talking about will and adults? Sorry if this was meant to be a joke. But having a plan like this is crucial important.
The point, is that people don’t like thinking about this subject, as evidenced by the fact that half of people don’t put plans in place even when it’s something as comparatively simple as a will unless they get more imminent prior warning. This is not a Linux kernel specific issue, Bram and vim being an obvious example. Something as potentially complicated as the Linux kernel succession? I can see why it wouldn’t be a subject the community was keen to tackle.
More popular. More users. Higher percentage of desktop/laptop PC users
Flatpak permissions handled in a very easy to use way. No silent failure. No need to go to flatseal and users understand why something didn’t work how they expected and what they need to do to fix it
Growing Linux userbase eventually results in great day one support for new products from Qualcomm, ARM mali GPUs, PowerVR, etc. They’ll want to be able to compete year after year with Intel and AMD someday
Someday native Linux games rather than WINE/Proton will become the norm
Popular media software categories continue seeing open source software gain mainstream/professional viability. Talking like Blender, Godot, Krita today. Someday stuff like Kdenlive, Scribus, Inkscape, Ardour, GIMP, Darktable, etc will breach some line of good enough functionality, interface design. Someday the user base will grow enough and enough will make it into industry with their experience and opinions
Someday more normal Linux phone OS’s like PostmarketOS will become a solid piece of the mobile pie. Like ~5%. Like how desktop Linux is today. Good usability but still working up to streamlined. That’ll be way better than today. In what I imagine would be well over a decade when a Linux phone is as popular as desktop Linux is today, it’ll actually be pretty easy to use like desktop Linux is today
I see everything through the lens of the difference in user experience and mainstream penetration of 2010 compared to today. Like Kdenlive of 2010 compared to today. 2010 Blender vs today’s Blender. 2010 OpenOffice compared to 2026 Libreoffice. Gaming with WINE in 2010 to today with Proton/WINE/Steam. Unity/KDE/GNOME/etc of 2010 compared to today.
Since I first learned about Linux I have never envisioned a future where Linux didn’t eventually take over essentially all operating system spaces and I still don’t. The question is how long will it take to get there.
But as others have said, I think the overall decline of desktop PC use combined with the just pure overall quality of Linux compared to Mac and Windows PCs in 2026 implies that the x86 PC space will become majority Linux within the next 10 years if not less.
I mostly agree, except I think there could be a new version of something that isn’t Linux if it gets that big.
