Apologies if this has been asked to death already and i haven’t seen it. I’m also not trying to be too much of a downer but it’s kind of unprecedented.
I’m wondering what you think it’ll do to you personally? I think we’re just getting started and haven’t experienced the full shock yet. Inventories are still being burned down and even if the strait opened tomorrow no oil would flow for 8 months since you need to demine it and line up passages of tankers.
My biggest worry is over fertillizer. The strait closed right at planting season for the northern hemisphere stranding like ⅓ of the world’s ammonium nitrate. Farmers in rich nations buy it in advance and have it staged for spring, so I’m unsure how the rest of the world does it or how bad that’s going to be…
Agriculture in the U.S. is in a deep recession right now. Farmers are going out of business left and right due to disruptions in international trade caused by the orange moron.
Globally farmers are doing much better by taking advantage of the U.S. shooting themselves repeatedly in the foot.
As for fertilizer shortages, most of the northern hemisphere had already stocked up on supply over the winter in preparation for spring planting. So the effect there will be minimal.
The effects will be felt first in the tropical/sub-tropical regions as they rely on a more constant supply to match their planting seasons.
Next year is fucked globally however. The southern hemisphere will get it first starting in September This will send prices soaring during the northern hemisphere winter pricing/contacting.
Growers will cut back on fertilizer purchases initially but still do okay as speculation of lower yeilds will spike commodity prices. The spike in prices will hit consumers a little bit over the winter and really get going in spring 2027.