DEF CON 33 - Post Quantum Panic: When Will the Cracking Begin, & Can We Detect it? - K Karagiannis
Due to recently published algorithmic improvements (1399 qubits @ 2048 bit key length for Shor’s) and leaps being made in quantum computing hardware (IBM Starling @ 200 logical qubits in 2029, and IBM Blue Jay @ 2000 logical quibits from 2033 and on), encryption is in danger of State-sponsored and high end-criminal attacks as soon as 2030. Particularly susceptible are crypto-currencies like Bitcoin, which rely on the Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem (ECDLP) and are attackable by Shor’s factoring capability on a predictably feasible quantum computer.
There are now quantum resistant algorithms, with the hope being that even advanced quantum computers wouldn’t be able to crack it in a time that different from regular computers. I think I was reading that it’s already a part of release wireguard?
Resistant, but not guaranteed. Nothing is guaranteed when it comes to encryption.