Source https://jlai.lu/comment/17891842
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Bro, Russia, under the banner of USSR, tried to coerce China into joining USSR and effectively becoming a puppet state, losing sovereignty. They brought up the topic of WW2 “aid” they provided during the war of resistance against Japanese Imperialism, and demanded repayment because of the worsening relationships (aka: “Sino-Soviet Split”), there were talks (rumors?) of imminent invasion, so PRC had to do nuclear tests to scare them off. A lot of resources like apples, for example, were sent over the border I guess as sort of “repaying debts”(?) in the meantime as diplomacy continued.
This was an account of events told by my father who was living in China at the time; while the West and USSR had a Cold War, there was another cold war between the Soviets and China.
If China didn’t finish developing the nuke, I’m pretty sure Soviets would’ve invaded.
Like… imperialism isn’t just a East vs West, Capitalist vs Communist thing, they even do that to their own (former) allies.
As much I dislike CCP, I’m kinda glad they managed to finish developing the nuke to deter Soviet aggression, more balance in the world and that Asia didn’t get entirely gobbled up by Soviets.
(Although I do wonder, what would a Soviet-Occupied China look like? Probably even worse suffering than current timeline? Idk…)
Yeah, Ukraine should never have given up their nukes, but hindsight is 20/20. Would have been a lot easier to tell putler to fuck off now.
Also, I imagine China would have just been transformed into a bunch of disjointed regions and the population reshuffled all over the USSR, like they did with most other non-russian ethnicities ever since the actual empire era.
Ukraine was under a Russian friendly government when it return weapons on loan from Russia to the Russians. This was an agreement lobbied for by the US as part of a condition for Ukraine joining Western economic trade.
This was never a choice in any material sense. No more than the Cubans giving back the missiles they had staged during the Kennedy crisis (or Turkiye giving back their Jupiter missiles in turn).
Also, nukes are expensive to maintain. Ukraine simply didn’t have the resources to do that.
Quite possibly, Russia didn’t either, but they tried.
Not only that, but they didn’t have the launch codes, as those were kept in Russia. History Matters made a lovely little educational cartoon on the subject. Honestly, wish Ukraine held out for an official guarantee of independence instead of just aid money, but who knows if even that would have been honoured today.
I’m honestly surprised China hasn’t “invaded” Ukraine. Not to fight, or take territory. Just to sit on the border and defend. While at the same time sending a very public message to putin. Back off, or fight us, and start a war with China.
Now after having their military shredded down over the last 3 years, russia doesn’t have the resources to fight China. But putin’s ego won’t let him back down. So now russia engages Ukraine, and in doing so, starts a war with China.
China then steamrolls russia and just takes all their land. You’d have a fresh modern military that hasn’t had it’s military fighting for years, vs a worn down depleted hanging on by a thread military that’s also full of corruption and rot from the inside. A military that had to cancel a parade last year because they didn’t physically have the tanks.
It would essentially be free real estate for China to take. The united states wouldn’t try to get involved directly in their war. Because it’s still two nuclear armed militaries. Russia wouldn’t nuke China, because 1) their own nukes probably don’t work, but that info only becomes available if you attempt to use them, and 2) it would prompt a swift nuclear reaction from China.
And China isn’t going to nuke russia because 1) They can’t innitiate the nuking and still be supported by outside nations as “the good guy” (and China would be trying to push that narrative HARD), 2) China in general is very anti-nuke. It’s not in their nature to use that unless it’s a last resort, and 3) They don’t have to. Take nukes off the table, and I think China today EASILY steamrolls through Russia in about a month.
So I don’t get why China doesn’t put defensive armys inside Ukraines borders. Then wait to get attacked as a premeditation for going to war with Russia. Then taking huge chunks of land.
China is supplying Russia with material aid during this conflict - they get to profit from the war while russia collapses economically plus continue their economic and political war with Europe practically unopposed (the US dropped out and Russia isn’t really in good shape to be compeition anymore) and all without having to address the issue of the millions of refugees nor the logistics of maintaining an occupying force in the largest least hospitable country in the world.
Something something land war in Asia.
The CCP is a lot of things, but they ain’t dumb.
Over expansion, language issues and russians would be a hard population to control like they do China? Those are my guesses.