Apologies if this has been asked to death already and i haven’t seen it. I’m also not trying to be too much of a downer but it’s kind of unprecedented.
I’m wondering what you think it’ll do to you personally? I think we’re just getting started and haven’t experienced the full shock yet. Inventories are still being burned down and even if the strait opened tomorrow no oil would flow for 8 months since you need to demine it and line up passages of tankers.
My biggest worry is over fertillizer. The strait closed right at planting season for the northern hemisphere stranding like ⅓ of the world’s ammonium nitrate. Farmers in rich nations buy it in advance and have it staged for spring, so I’m unsure how the rest of the world does it or how bad that’s going to be…
It’s beyond my understanding, realistically, and perhaps that’s for the best. I assume everything will just become radically pricier… but, hey, I’m in the West so at least I’m not getting bombed as well. 🙃
… Yet.
It probably is for all of us. I can understand the first order effects of a 20% shortage for the world, and missing ⅓ of it’s fertillizer. The nth order effects I have no idea.
I’ve been buying more canned food, multiple bags of rice and different beans. Where I live 99% of our grid comes from hydro power so I’m not worried about blackouts. I’m buying stuff I normally eat anyways (sprats and sardines. Tuna/salmon snacks. Canned soups) and stockpiling since prices keep going up…
I keep hearing end of July, early August, but the very latest by September will be when the full shock hits in its entirety.