The same way it happened with digg: Clear turn against user interests to chase revenue from brands directly, a slow but steady drain of its important users to competitors, a sinking of its stock value, until it is finally acquired by a online brands clearinghouse like Demand Media for parts.
By banning porn. Out of all the things that could motivate people to search for alternatives, this might be the most durable driving factor.
Outside of that I think it will be a slow decline in quality. Eventually quality content will decrease more and more, and low effort memes and bot content will take over.
Honestly the porn has gone way downhill. Or so I am told by friends of some casual acquaintences.
It’s all bots now. Some subs don’t even moderate their content to be relevant to the name of the sub anymore.
A friend told me that it depends on whether you like the free content that OnlyFans content provider will give out.
Soooo what we are basically seeing in real time ATM?
Delete old.reddit
All the longer term users who keep the ecosystem functional will leave in frustration. That is, the ones who didn’t leave already over spez deciding to kneecap third party clients.
Once those users are gone, the death spiral starts.
Yep. The day they kill old.reddit is the day I stop using it.
Tbf Reddit revenue comes from ads that are based on traffic, so even if 99% of the accounts are fake bots they still make money. I think that loophole will keep them on forever
I mean, not long term though? Advertisers and Marketers don’t invest if their ads don’t have some ROI. And no bot is going to engage with an ad to the point of actually result in a sale for obvious reasons.
I expect Reddit to die in a couple decades for the simple reason that no social media platform will out last a generation of users. I could be wrong, as the modern social media landscape isn’t even one generation old, and perhaps there will be multi generational social media platforms, but I just don’t see it.
fade away quietly like Digg
Well, they reached out to me (and many others on-platform) to buy shares in their IPO. Something-something contributor something.
Anyway, no VC worth half their salt will leave money on the table letting essentially the public buy equity at the same price as them.
So that’s not a healthy sign for them.
Same. I was sent that email and deleted it. A bunch of garbage.
It’s predatory garbage – I’ve had some VCs as customers and I guarantee that if the IPO was expected to do well, they would not leave a dime on the table for contributors. Generally if you don’t know who the bag-holder in these schemes is… chances are it’s you!
I still help out people on Reddit, because a lot of foreigners don’t know how to do things in my country (e.g. find medication they need) and that’s where they ask. If it vanishes tomorrow, I don’t really care though, haha.
It’ll die the same reason quora dies. really bad content inaccessible through enshitification
it’ll continue to stay up for years, funded by gullible investors who are convinced that the heavily sanitized and automated interactions are genuinely organic
I hope so. There is so much niche Linux information and solutions that I could only find on Reddit.
I know you said it but it’s not going to die completely. Hell, MySpace is still around.
My money is on slow decline in content quality. It might not ever die per se, it might just become Craigslist or Digg.
This has already happened. Just the niche communities haven’t migrated away yet.
After the IPO, Reddit stock plummets and Steve Huffman leaves with a big payout. Reddit Inc appoints a new CEO who starts to push deeply unpopular changes in the name of turning a profit. There is a major exodus to other platforms.
Reddit goes the way of Digg v4.
Itll slowly bleed out users to a number of alternative forms of social media and become functionally irrelevant like Slashdot. Still alive but in the same way someone with most of their brain turned to fluid and kept alive on life support.
IPO -> billionaire purchase -> enshittification -> never dies but sucks forever
Repeat until the entire internet is a dusty smelly unkempt nursing home where orderlies occasionally kick you in the ribs. I have seen the future and this is it.
If they survive IPO and the shits storm that will bring, It will be the porn ban. We all know someone with a big wallet is going to push the change eventually.
I think the new preferential treatment in Googles algo will cancel out people leaving due to content getting stale.
This is honestly what I expect to happen. Once the porn is banned, people will stop going there. It has a lot of info for obscure communities and tech communities, but eventually that will start to move to other places.
So, I guess it will slowly die out.
By puffing up the company for the IPO then the class action fraud suit will bankrupt what is left after paying out the CEO.
